Davao City Mayoral Race 2025: Duterte vs. Nograles

Analysis Period: January 10, 2025 – February 9, 2025

1. About Davao City

Davao City, located in the province of Davao del Sur in the Davao Region (Region XI), is the largest city in the Philippines by land area and the third most populous, with a population of 1,776,949 as of the 2020 census. The city is divided into three congressional districts and 11 administrative districts, encompassing a total of 182 barangays. The political climate has been predominantly influenced by the Duterte family for decades, with former President Rodrigo Duterte having served multiple terms as mayor. The primary dialect spoken is Cebuano, along with Filipino and English. As of the 2022 elections, the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) reported a significant number of registered voters in the city.

2. Demographics

Based on available data and projections for 2025, the generational breakdown of Davao City's population is as follows:

Note: Percentages are approximations based on available data.

3. Social Media & Digital Presence

Data as of February 9, 2025.

Rodrigo Duterte

• Social Media Presence:
  • Facebook: 45%
  • YouTube: 30%
  • TikTok: 25%
• Online Presence: 60%
• Mainstream Media: 70%

Karlo Nograles

• Social Media Presence:
  • Facebook: 40%
  • YouTube: 35%
  • TikTok: 25%
• Online Presence: 55%
• Mainstream Media: 65%

Note: Percentages are based on combined activity, reach, and engagement across platforms.

4. Online Dominance

Based on data gathered during the analysis period.

• Online Presence Ranking:

  1. Rodrigo Duterte
  2. Karlo Nograles

• Online Popularity Ranking:

  1. Rodrigo Duterte
  2. Karlo Nograles

• Online Approval Rating Ranking:

  1. Rodrigo Duterte
  2. Karlo Nograles

5. Hashtags and Mentions

Combined total of hashtags and mentions across platforms.

• Rodrigo Duterte: 65%
• Karlo Nograles: 35%

6. Final Summary

• Winner Based on Social and Online Media Presence: Rodrigo Duterte
• Winner Based on Appeal with People: Rodrigo Duterte
• If the Election Were Held Now, Likely Winner: Rodrigo Duterte

7. Online Voter Turnout Assumption

Translating online data into potential votes.

• Rodrigo Duterte: 60%
• Karlo Nograles: 40%

Note: These figures are assumptions based on online presence and may not reflect actual voter turnout.

Part 2: Candidate Analysis

Rodrigo Duterte

Pros:

• Established political figure with extensive experience.
• Strong name recognition and loyal supporter base.

Cons:

• Controversial policies during previous terms.
• Ongoing investigations may affect public perception.

SWOT Analysis:

• Strengths: Deep-rooted political influence in Davao City.
• Weaknesses: Polarizing figure due to past policies.
• Opportunities: Reestablish leadership and address past criticisms.
• Threats: Legal challenges and shifting public opinion.

Karlo Nograles

Pros:

• Fresh perspective with a focus on progressive policies.
• Experience in various government roles.

Cons:

• Less name recognition compared to Duterte.
• Limited experience in executive positions.

SWOT Analysis:

• Strengths: Background in legislative processes and policy development.
• Weaknesses: Relatively lower public profile.
• Opportunities: Appeal to younger voters seeking change.
• Threats: Strong competition from established political figures.

Scoring:

• Rodrigo Duterte: 75/100
• Karlo Nograles: 65/100

Conclusion:

While Rodrigo Duterte maintains a strong presence and support base in Davao City, Karlo Nograles presents a viable alternative for voters seeking change. The election outcome will depend on voter

Disclaimer

The information provided is based on publicly available data and is intended solely for informational purposes. It is not designed to mislead or be used for any election-related purposes. Please note that the data may be inaccurate. This information should not be used to discourage any candidate but rather to offer insights that could enhance campaign strategies. It is intended for positive and constructive use only.

Do you want us to run a free analysis of your area? Please contact us.

About

This information is produced by broadcast journalist Roy Bato and his team, who are dedicated to studying the evolving landscape, behaviors, patterns, and psychology of the upcoming 2025 elections. Their focus includes the impact of new technology and generational divides, examining how these factors influence the forthcoming election and how electoral processes have transformed over time.

Roy Bato provides free and special consulting services on how to improve your digital presence and connecting various generations for more information 0917 8000 694

About Roy Bato 

Roy Bato has been a broadcast journalist for 29 years and owns a media company. He has extensive experience in the country's political dynamics. In addition, he owns a 13 year old software outfit and is a strong advocate for digital transformation. Roy Bato remains focused on the ever-evolving landscape of media, human behavior, and technology.

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